39.  Chad - Four months after a signed a peace agreement ending three years of civil war, rebels of the Movement for Democracy and Justice in Chad (MDJT) resume fighting with the Chadian army; the northern rebels want President Deby to resign and signed the peace deal in January agreeing to the immediate ceasefire, release of prisoners, rebel integration into the national army and government jobs for MDJT leaders.

40.  Congo - Re-ignition of intense violence between Congolese government and "Ninja" militiamen killing hundreds and driving thousands from their homes in the capital area.

41.  Congo, Democratic Republic of - Residual violence continues after a peace deal is signed in July and Uganda/Rwanda have pulled back forces following the DRC civil war since 1998 pitted the government forces; supported by Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe, against rebels backed by Uganda and Rwanda.

42.  Ghana - Ethnic and political violence flare up in Northern Ghana and a State of Emergency is declared; rivalries are between the Andani and Abudu clans in the city of Yendi where fighting has cost the life of the king of Ghana's influential Dagomba tribe.

43.  Guinea - Residual violence from the ethnic tensions brought on from refugees from Sierra Leone increasing the strain on the Guinean economy.

44.  Ivory Coast - Military uprising after failed coup between loyal and mutinous soldiers spreads from city to city, cease-fire is agreed to in October but re-emerged political and ethnic fighting ends the six-week-long truce; widespread human rights violations.

45.  Kenya - Simultaneous terrorist attacks on 28 November: three suicide car bombers target an Israeli-owned hotel in Mombasa killing 13 people as well as themselves, minutes later two missiles were fired at an Israeli jet which had taken off from the city's airport.

46.  Liberia - Residual fighting between Liberian army and rebel faction forces in the North has spread to the capital city Monrovia, rebels from the Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) have been waging a low-level insurrection in northern Liberia for two years; President Charles Taylor declared a State of Emergency banning political rallies and public gatherings which was then later lifted; the conflict threatens to spillover into Sierra Leone and Guinea.

47.  Nigeria - severe ethnic and religious violence, particularly in areas implementing Islamic law; widespread violent civil unrest; unchecked violent crime; issuance of a "fatwa" or religious decree to kill journalist who linked Mohammed with the Miss World beauty contest.

48.  Senegal - Separatist rebel group Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (MFDC) continues fighting in the southern Casamance region; MFDC continues its 20-year struggle to create a separate state in southern Senegal despite peace talks in 2001, the separatist movement went through a series of splits and leadership changes which currently does not recognize the ceasefire.

49.  Somalia - Continued factional fighting between rival militias; financially motivated kidnapping, narcotics and weapons trafficking led by warlords who undermine government authority and maintain related violence; environment prone to possible terrorist haven.

50.  South Africa - deep-rooted racism and increased alcohol abuse spur racially motivated attacks and murders directed at land owners; foreigners and workers, lingering effects of apartheid; right-winged "Warriors of the Boer Nation" plant a series of bombs destroying a mosque and several railway lines in Soweto, the group is blamed for trying to ignite a "race war" and calls for the overthrow of the country's African National Congress government.

51.  Sudan - civil war against Christian and animist groups (SPLA) in the south; regime violence against opponents, particularly religious dissidents; peace talks convened and a short truce in fighting was agreed to but was broken by outbreak of violence and civil unrest.

52.  Uganda - Rebel group "Lord's Resistance Army" continues brutal attacks on villages even after President Museveni agrees to peace talks with the group; thousands have been kidnapped or displaced as a result of the insurgency.

53.  Zimbabwe - Land transfers from whites to blacks cause conflict between Zimbabwean “President for life” Maguabe not abiding by court rulings he feels are "unjust"; election violence; violent land reform; mob violence, including storming of white-owned farms; violent civil unrest against Mugabe government due to economic crisis and tainted elections.

Watch List

These countries did not meet the threshold of conflict zones, but should bear mentioning due to limited violence:  - Azerbaijan, Bosnia, Cameroon, Cyprus, Ethiopia, Fiji, Greece, Guinea – Bissau, Honduras, Jamaica, Kosovo, Laos, Malaysia, Malawi, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Sri Lanka, Syria, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand.

This Year's Changes

New Countries on the 2002 List

Countries from the 2001 Conflict List Removed for 2002

Patterns of Conflict

The United States Army's Leadership Guide has a three-step problem solving process - 1) Recognize the problem, 2) Make an estimate of the situation, and 3) Take action.  This World Conflict Report is intended to address the first, most basic step in this process - determining the level and causes of conflict. This report is a threat assessment, which we hope that policy makers will use to take action.

The criteria for inclusion on the conflict list are the level of political, social, economic and military disruption caused by the relevant conflict.  This is inherently a subjective measure, thus, standardized criteria such as 1,000 deaths per conflict are not applied.  Simply put, 1,000 deaths signify a lot more conflict in Nepal than in China.  Understanding that political, social, economic and military problems interact and feed off of each other is critical to addressing conflict.  For example, in 1992 the Center for Defense Information issued a report entitled “World at War 1992 - Fewer Wars, No Danger to the United States.”  In it, CDI claimed that wars were on the decline around the world, and that as a result U.S. defense spending was “tragically high.” This shortsighted prediction was based on a uni-dimensional reading of the situation.  The National Defense Council Foundation (NDCF) World Conflict Report is intended to do better.

There were 59 conflicts in 2001 & 53 in 2002.

The patterns in the conflict are telling. Generally speaking, the distribution of conflicts around the world has stayed mostly stable (see charts below). As has been true for the duration of NDCF studies, the most conflict-prone areas are in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, which together account for nearly half of all conflicts. The most significant change in geographical distribution is the rise of conflict in South/Central Asia, which has gone from 6 conflicts in 1997 to 10 in 2000. The rise of conflict in this region is primarily due to the spillover of the war in Afghanistan, which acts like a cancer on the region, spreading to the weakest states and destabilizing even the strongest. 

While the distribution of conflicts by region has been stable, in recent years there has been a sea change in the type of conflict. While the United States military is primarily geared to fight a medium-intensity international conflict with fronts, tanks, artillery, etc., a growing number of conflicts are low-intensity civil. Since low-intensity conflicts are fought primarily with small arms and using guerilla forces and terrorism, the current U.S. force structure is unprepared to meet this growing challenge.

Another important pattern is the growth of medium-intensity international conflicts. When the United States repelled the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in the early 1990s, it set a strong precedent that invasion was no longer an appropriate tool of diplomacy. As a result, unstable countries were far less likely to invade their neighbors, although low-intensity conflicts persisted.  However, the Clinton administration had failed to maintain the precedent set in the Gulf War, and as the 1990s progressed medium-intensity conflicts began to grow.  President Bush must now have to cope with an international system where invasion is again a cogent instrument of policy.  The pattern - from zero medium-intensity international conflicts just three years ago; neglect has fostered the six current conflicts.

Of the 53 conflicts surveyed in 2002, two stand out for their peculiarities.  The stupidest conflict in this year’s count is Nigeria  Early in the year, Nigeria was experiencing widespread problems with religious turmoil & violent crime.

While Nigeria wins the title of the stupidest conflict, the title of the most dangerous conflict goes to Iraq. This because the use of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical weapons is almost a forgone conclusion.

Outlook

Instability Indicators reflect NDCF’s analysis of which countries will be conflict areas in 2001. Using data such as the infant mortality rate, level of military influence on the government, and exposure to international trade, we generated a formula that gives each country a 0 to 100 rating for instability. The indicator is essentially our forecast for the conflict’s temperature - at 100, the conflict boils, while at 0 it is nonexistent. The data is broken down into political, military, economic and social instability ratings that are totaled to reach the final indicator.

The 99.105 that is ascribed to Afghanistan is the highest total ever for a single country, meaning that Afghanistan will be more unstable than any other country has been for three years.

Conclusions for 2002